%0 Journal Article 
%T Valoración probabilística versus borrosa, opciones reales y el modelo binomial. Aplicación para proyectos de inversión en condiciones de ambigüedad
%J ESTUDIOS GERENCIALES;Vol. 30 No. 132
%D 2014
%@ 01235923
%U http://www.icesi.edu.co/revistas/index.php/estudios_gerenciales/article/view/1808
%X The aim of this paper is to present the methodology, advantages and weakness of the fuzzy binomial
real option model as a complement to the probabilistic binomial model. The structure is as follow: first,
it shows the real option models classified into probabilistic and fuzzy. Second, it develops the binomial
fuzzy model, incorporating: the MAD method (Marketed Asset Disclaimer); fuzzy binomial lattice, and
the pessimistic-optimistic index for estimates of the real option expected value of the project (ROEV).
It illustrates, using a case comparing, the results obtained with the fuzzy and probabilistic model. It
concludes that in lack of information situations (ambiguity), the fuzzy logic is a complement of the
probabilistic model for estimates of the strategic flexibility value.
%K Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas y Económicas
%K Producción intelectual registrada - Universidad Icesi
%K Estudios Gerenciales
%K Proyectos de inversión
%K Modelo binomial
%K Valoración
%K Real
%K options
%K Binomial
%K Ambiguity
%~ GOEDOC, SUB GOETTINGEN