TY  - CHAP 
TI  - Determinantes de la tasa de cambio en Colombia: evaluación de pronósticos
PB  - Universidad Nacional de Colombia,
PY  - 2005
SN  - 9587015592
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10906/81321
AB  - This paper analyses the in sample forecasting performance of four models
for the Colombian exchange rate during the period 1984:1-2004:1. The sticky
price monetary (Dornbusch 1976),(Franke11979) and the Balassa-Samuelson
(which gives a central role to the productivity differentials) approaches are
used. Additionally, the Purchasing Power Parity condition (PPP) is analyzed.
The forecasting ability of these models is compared using a random
walk as a benchmark model. The measures used to evaluate the forecasts
are the root mean square error (rms) and inequality coefficient of Theil. It is
found that despite the great ability to predict, no model overcomes the random
walk. This conclusion strengthens the previous results in the exchange
rate determinants literature.
KW  - Economía
KW  - Econometría
KW  - Economics
KW  - Econometrics models
KW  - Tasa de cambio
KW  - Modelos econométricos
KW  - Pronósticos de los negococios
ER  -