TY  - JOUR 
TI  - Valoración probabilística versus borrosa, opciones reales y el modelo binomial. Aplicación para proyectos de inversión en condiciones de ambigüedad
JO  - ESTUDIOS GERENCIALES;Vol. 30 No. 132
PB  - Universidad Icesi
PY  - 2014
issn 01235923
AB  - The aim of this paper is to present the methodology, advantages and weakness of the fuzzy binomial
real option model as a complement to the probabilistic binomial model. The structure is as follow: first,
it shows the real option models classified into probabilistic and fuzzy. Second, it develops the binomial
fuzzy model, incorporating: the MAD method (Marketed Asset Disclaimer); fuzzy binomial lattice, and
the pessimistic-optimistic index for estimates of the real option expected value of the project (ROEV).
It illustrates, using a case comparing, the results obtained with the fuzzy and probabilistic model. It
concludes that in lack of information situations (ambiguity), the fuzzy logic is a complement of the
probabilistic model for estimates of the strategic flexibility value.
KW  - Facultad de Ciencias Administrativas y Económicas
KW  - Producción intelectual registrada - Universidad Icesi
KW  - Estudios Gerenciales
KW  - Proyectos de inversión
KW  - Modelo binomial
KW  - Valoración
KW  - Real
KW  - options
KW  - Binomial
KW  - Ambiguity
UR  - http://www.icesi.edu.co/revistas/index.php/estudios_gerenciales/article/view/1808
ER  -