TY  - JOUR 
TI  - Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia
PB  - Fundaco Oswaldo Cruz
PY  - 2016
issn 0074-0276
AB  - The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.
KW  - Leishmaniasis cutánea
KW  - Análisis espacial
KW  - Medicina tropical
KW  - Parasitología
KW  - Región Andina (Colombia)
KW  - Factores de riesgo ambientales
KW  - Biología
KW  - Biology
KW  - Ecología
KW  - Ecology
KW  - Conservación de la biodiversidad
KW  - Biodiversity conservation
KW  - Métodos de investigación en bioquímica
KW  - Research biochemistry
UR  - http://repository.icesi.edu.co/biblioteca_digital/handle/10906/82545
ER  -