Análisis de la interdependencia de los ciclos económicos del cauca y el suroccidente colombiano: una aproximación econométrica desde los filtros de Kalman y Hodrick-Prescott

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to study the cyclical interdependence of the GDP in the state of Cauca with its neighboring states. A review was conducted of the regional economic cycles using Kalman and Hodrick- Prescott’s filters. This included the use of VAR systems with impulse response analysis to determine the impact of the economic cycle in the State of Cauca and exogenous shocks on the region and vice versa. Firstly, our results show that the cycle in the state of Cauca has a closer relation to the cycle in the state of Nariño as opposed to the cycles in the states of Huila, Valle, or Tolima. It also reveals that exogenous shocks have greater volatility using a Kalman filter than using a Hodrick-Prescott filter.