Diseño metodológico de la evaluación de proyectos energéticos bajo incertidumbre en precios : caso de cogeneración de energía en una empresa en Cali

Abstract

Energy resources in the industry have increased in importance and competitiveness, representing the second or third major item in the cost of manufacture. The fluctuating behavior of historical costs, as well as the uncertainty of their future trend, accentuated by the imminent removal of the tax contribution on electricity (20% of the tariff), has led to questioning whether energy co-generation projects will be viable in the near future. This paper shows, from the development of an innovative methodology to assess the feasibility of the implementation of projects of co-generation based on three simulations that used statistical information and mathematical projections, as well as a performing a sensitivity analysis of the expected behaviors of future prices of electrical energy and fuels.