Potenciales efectos del cambio climático global sobre la red trófica de la aves playeras del género Calidris en sustratos blandos del Pacífico colombiano

Abstract

The ecological modeling it’s a tool that allows researchers to approach the understanding of how ecosystems work through simplification and the integration of variables of most relevance. It generates a conceptual model for the interaction of 3 variables of climatic change and its influence in the trophic web of the shorebirds of the genus Calidris in the Colombian Pacific Coast, especially, the species Calidris mauri. The variables in consideration are: changement in the precipitation, the increase in the sea level, and the temperatures increment, for the two lapses of time circumscribe the scenarios of the family A2, proposed for the IPCC and adapted in Colombia for the sandy beaches and the mud flats. For the elaboration of the model, sub models were formulated for each variable that later were evaluated and gathered in a global model. The evaluation of this model for the scenario 2011-2040 reveals that the effect of the variables of change will be slight thanks to the great plasticity of the diet and the possibility of the movement between different places of refueling. Every event occurred in this first stage are heightened in a second period in the end of the century (2070-2100) to the exception of the drag of organic matter and the sedimentation, that it keeps almost constant in zones of great importance for the shorebirds Calidris, like the ones in Bahia de Buenaventura, Malaga and Parque Nacional Natural Sanquianga. By the end of the century is expected that the availability of food it’s going to be affected mainly for the increment of temperature that could include mortality in the invertebrates and low availability by the effect of thermo avoidance response. It is expected changes in the behavioral level that involves modification in the foraging strategy like most of the proportions of probing in the mud respecting the picking in the surface, searching maximize the capture. It is expected also the exploration of new niches like the consume of biofilm. It’s possible that the increase of the sea level hold in general a neutral effect because of the area that increased for intrusion in the beach could be countered for the anthropic occupation in the areas. The implication of the model at local scale involves the effect of the females and the youth because they are the most population of Calidris in the Pacific. In this manner the climatic change make a transgenerational effect that might have repercussions in the populations on Pacific Flyway.