(Universidad Icesi, 2005-03-01) Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César
This document investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using annual
data for the Valle del Cauca (Colombia) from 1960 to 2000. No evidence is found to support the
causal relation behind the export-led growth hypothesis. A VAR model that includes the regional
output, the regional exports and, two control variables: national output and real exchange rate is
employed. The results show a causal relation that goes from output to exports. The estimated
impulse-response functions indicate that output in the Valle del Cauca generates a positive impact on
exports while the opposite does not occur. The regional level results (Valle del Cauca) are consistent
with the national level results (Colombia).
