Forced Displacement in Colombia: What Determines Expulsion and Reception in Municipalities?

Abstract

This document explores the expulsion and reception determinants of displaced people among Colombian municipalities. For this purpose, we use fixed effects panel data estimations for the period 2004–2009, with municipality year as the unit of analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper in Colombia that focuses on reception and the first one using panel data at municipal level to explain expulsion and reception. We find that, contrary to what one may expect, some independent variables affect both expulsion and reception of displaced people in the same direction; for instance, municipalities where homicide rates and conflict intensity are high, are associated with both higher reception and expulsion rates. In addition to the conventional panel data estimation, we also run a fixed effect vector decomposition to identify the explicit effects of certain time-invariant variables.