Logo_Icesi
 

Forecasting the Colombian NationaL Government´s total expenditures and total income using temporal aggregation

No hay miniatura disponible

Fecha

2009-03-27

Título de la revista

ISSN de la revista

Título del volumen

Publicador

Universidad Icesi

Editor

Compartir

Resumen

We estimate annual forecasts to the Colombian Government’s total revenues and total expenditures, using temporal aggregation methodology. Particularly, we use monthly data (high frequency data) to estimate a SARIMA model for each account, then we apply the Silvestrani and Veredas(2004) temporal aggregation technique to obtain an annual equivalent Data Generating Process (DGP). Two different forecast methods are compared: i) adding twelve-steps-ahead forecasts from the high frequency DGP and ii) estimating a one-stepahead forecast from the low frequency (annual) DGP. We found that the aggregation technique improves the accuracy of the deficit forecasts. Furthermore, this methodology allows updating the annual forecasts as soon as new monthly data available. Finally, we discuss the applications of this methodology in the private and public sector’s budgeting process.

Abstract

Resumo

Descripción

Palabras clave

Déficit fiscal - Colombia, Prévisión, Procesos financieros, Economía, Econometría, Economics, Econometrics models

Keywords

Palavras-chave

Citación

DOI

Handle

ISBN

9789588357416

ISSN

OLIB

URL

YouTube

Creative Commons License
Excepto si se señala otra cosa, la licencia del ítem se describe como Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).