The supply system of medicines in primary health care in Chile has a unique nationwide provider and
does not consider multilevel demand for calculating the procurement, generating inventory surplus. This
paper proposes a regular supply policy review that uses a probabilistic demand forecasting modeling
the dependence structure, individually and through bi-varied copulas, coordinating demand multilevel
minimizing costs associated with the purchase, maintenance and storage. The validation of the proposal
was conducted on a sample of 104 medicines supplied by three years in a Chilean family health center.
When comparing the current policy with the proposal, such weekly decline a 8.22% in purchasing costs,
a 95.47% cost of ordering and a 54.6% of total costs.
