Variables que inciden en el precio de la bolsa de energía y su correlación con los contratos de largo plazo

Abstract

Given the importance of evolution in prices of energy stock market, this paper was done in order to analyze the variables that constitute the price and its characteristics, as well as its impact in electric energy market. The current Colombian regulation was analyzed and the most important variables were identified; a similarity according to contract prices was also established. This analysis period, according to the information available in the historical archives from XM – Market Experts, was from 2009 to June 2011. On the same hand, some behaviors from previous years are also mentioned, which labeled certain tendency in prices, caused by some weather conditions like “la Niña” and “el Niño” phenomenon. One of the greatest conclusions obtained, is that hydrology (reflected in summer and winter seasons) marks a very important tendency in price, just like it was to be expected in a stable market, in which abundance generates low prices tendencies and shortage generates high tendencies. This defines in Colombian energy market that prices respond in a closer way to the fundamental ones.