The role of outsourced security in refugee flows: effects during and after the Cold War.

Abstract

This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of refugee migration between two historical periods: 1951-1989 representing the Cold War era, and 1990-2004, the post-Cold War era. The determinants of refugee migration over the two periods are assessed and compared using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for a sample of 115 armed conflicts-countries. But more importantly, the main objective of this research is to explore the relation between the evolution of outsourced security and refugee flows, escalating from legally detached mercenary organizations from the mid-20th century to a robust industry shortly before the beginning of the new millennium.